Monday, December 31, 2007

NEW YEAR'S RESOLUTION

Coaching Yourself for Profitable Trading Performance in 2008

In my recent post, I mentioned that there is a considerable overlap between coaching and the short-term approaches to behavior change known as brief therapy. Many traders try to make accelerated changes in their cognitive, behavioral, and emotional patterns without understanding how such changes can be made and sustained. Indeed, few of the professional trading coaches that I’ve met seem to be aware of the brief therapy literature and the extensive research on change and how it occurs.

So how can you use this growing area of research and practice to aid your progress in 2008? Here are a few findings from the brief therapy world and their implications for coaching yourself to successful trading performance:

1) Keep It Focused - The research is unequivocal: focused efforts at change are more likely to occur–and more likely to occur in a relatively brief time frame–than efforts to change many things at one time. Establishing and maintaining a change focus is perhaps the single most important thing one can do to ensure that efforts at improvement will pay off. The focus should be grounded in a thorough assessment of the problems to be addressed and the strengths to be built upon. Many times traders assume that their problem is one thing or another, when in fact they haven’t really drilled down into their trade data to identify what, specifically, they’re doing right or wrong. Working on something broad and vague, such as “discipline”, is not a focus. Focused changes should identify specific things to do differently and concrete steps to make a difference.

2) Keep It Consistent - Research into short-term change finds that involvement in the change process–consistent efforts over time–is associated with success. Traders who work on their trading in a structured, daily fashion are much more likely to benefit from coaching than those who limit their change efforts to weekly or monthly reviews. The goal of all short-term change is to create new, positive habit patterns. It is impossible to create those patterns without regularity: doing new things so consistently that they become part of the self.

3) Keep It Doable - Success breeds optimism, motivation, and further efforts at success. Effective change efforts create a virtuous cycle of continuous improvement. If goals for change are too difficult, they will create only frustration and discouragement. It is better to start small and ensure success than to try to make the most complex changes all at once. If you’re working on entering or exiting trades differently, just try it for a single day and see how it goes. Then modify the goal for the next day. By focusing on the next day’s trade, you keep goals concrete and doable.

In general, I would say that traders tend to overweight the importance of psychology in their results and underweight trading mechanics: how they execute trade ideas (getting good entry prices, not chasing moves; ensuring that each trade has a favorable reward-to-risk profile) and how they set and follow criteria for exiting trades (price targets as well as stop losses). To be sure, psychological factors can interfere with the implementation of those mechanics, but many traders simply lack sound rules for entering and exiting positions and instead make decisions impulsively, on the fly.

A review of one’s own best trades can be very effective in identifying one’s own “best practices” regarding trading mechanics. Those best practices can then be translated into focused, doable goals that are pursued with consistency.

Best of luck in your development in 2008. The posts below may be of additional help in your self-coaching efforts.
http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/

Friday, December 28, 2007

Tuesday, December 25, 2007

OPTION DRAGON'S MANTRA

OPTION DRAGON'S MANTRA

1) We/I believe it is actually possible to make money trading the markets.
2) We/I believe it is possible for us/me to make money trading the markets.
3) We/I believe that we/I deserve to make money trading the markets.

“We/I are/am the Greatest traders Ever.
We always work successfully together.
We/I are/am making millions of dollars trading the markets every year.
We/I are/am happy and content, appreciative of our trading profits.
We/I are/am always calm, collected, focused.
We/I are/am always in the zone.
We/I come from positivity and abundance.
We/I cultivate and sustain a sense of ease remaining in the zone,(the Yoda state).

Have focus, patience, and pick plays with high probability of success.

Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind on the present moment.

Just Make Good Trades.”

NOTES:
1) We/I believe it is actually possible to make money trading the markets.
2) We/I believe it is possible for us/me to make money trading the markets.
3) We/I believe that we/I deserve to make money trading the markets.”

Each one is different. To believe you must give thought and feeling to it. Give it the feeling of satisfaction/joy to the thought. Saying it means nothing. Believing in it means everything. Think about why each is different and its different meanings.
“The Secret ” is true.

Got these quotes from an article written by a trading coach.

“We/I are/am the Greatest traders Ever.
We always work successfully together.
We/I are/am making millions of dollars trading the markets every year.
We/I are/am happy and content, appreciative of our trading profits.
We/I are/am always calm, collected, focused.
We/I are/am always in the zone.
We/I come from positivity and abundance.
We/I cultivate and sustain a sense of ease remaining in the zone, the Yoda state.

Have focus, patience, and pick plays with high probability of success.

Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind on the present moment-(quote from Buddha)”
(Lion in the Safari)
Just Make Good Trades.

I also ask myself after reading all research data from the morning “What are the possible themes today and what events are there” and think like a lion in the safari, cannot chase everything otherwise you get tired, pick a high probability target.

It is important to talk about things as present tense-Now. No “will”s but “Am”s.
So what if some are not true(can’t tell that to me now that I’ve said it about a million times), your subconscious and brain can’t tell! They believe and follow the heart. Give feeling to it while saying or thinking it. Feeling of joy/happiness.

Each sentence to me meant something different and this list has been changing until recently (i’m sure it will change some more but not much). I trade with my brother and including you guys/gals so the 2nd sentence is key as well. Being appreciative of your trading profits boosts your trading profits especially before it happens!
Staying calm is important but if you wear your emotions on your sleeve then it is important not to suppress your emotion but to express it and then recognize it and move on quickly, as you do it over and over again it becomes easier to do. Always stay positive and Happy!

Coming from positivity and abundance is important because it is opposite of desperation and negativity which leads to bad trades. Cultivating and sustaining is very important as you harvest and plant new seeds of trading profits in continuum. The Buddha quote is great to focus your mind on the NOW of the moment further sharpening the scope.

This next poem is a favorite of mine and was in the movie Akeelah and the Bee (2006).

Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate.
Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure.
It is our light, not our darkness that most frightens us.
We ask ourselves, who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented and fabulous.
Actually, who are you not to be?
You are a child of God.
Your playing small does not serve the world.
There’s nothing enlightened about shrinking so that other people won’t feel insecure around you.
We were born to make manifest the glory of God that is within us.
It is not just in some of us - it is in everyone.
And as we let our own light shine,
we unconsciously give other people permission to do the same.
As we are liberated from our own fear, our presence automatically liberates others.

-Marianne Williamson

BE GLORIOUSLY BRIGHT!

Sunday, December 23, 2007

Option Dragon's Thoughts

Market Forecast
BTW I love using the TRIN and TICK indicator for the NYSE and Nasdaq and see it as a game changer in order to gauge short term liquidity flows and underlying price actions, as in short term demand and supply. I have found it very useful and another important piece to my repertoire. As you can see by the chart, the market was raising bids for the past 2 days as it never broke .70. Use the TRIN, TICK value table below to feel the zones in which the market is in, sentiment zones as I like to think of it. As you can see the market was in a Mega-Bullish mode for the past two days and it will be interesting to see if the market stays in the lower zone on the TRIN’s through the end of the year. Keep an eye on it and try to make correlated high probability plays with TICK and TRIN as another variable within your trading formula. (Here‘s a place that you can read up more about TICK and TRIN.)

http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2007/04/trading-techniques-collection-of.html



It is now holiday trading and historically we should trail up into the New Year. The technicals on Happy’s market index charts all show a higher low on the longer term charts and I believe that we COULD be almost done working off the correction phase the market has been in.

After all the writedowns, chicken little crying about how the sky is falling from the media and bloggers, here we are still above November lows and still attracting large numbers of buyers. Why aren’t we lower and doesn’t the market know we are in a recession? Maybe it already knew and now is pricing in a different scenario in 6 months. I mean is this really any new news? What the market loves is certainty, transparency and clarity and as corporations become more transparent and truthful about the losses suffered by the subprime fiasco the market gets more clarity on the financial situation. So I say give the market what it wants give it clarity, give it transparency, dump all your bad news now so we can focus on better things such as earnings!

The earnings season is approaching and like my 500% (5 bagger, it went from $110 to almost $150) on DECK earnings last time, I still think DECK and Uggs is the consumer play to be in. So I went shopping last night and JWN (Nordstrom’s) was sold out of the $50 kid’s Ugg’s for xmas! I had to order a pair of Uggs from another JWN location bcuz the $150 pair of Uggs I bought for my wife was sold out and the sales rep told me, she can’t believe it and whatever they get they sell. Everywhere I go I see young and old wearing them, it reminds me of the iPod craze.
Hmmm, it pays to be in trend and be cool! J It would not surprise me to see DECK at or near $200 after earnings. I believe AAPL and GRMN both had the best sales ever and should be watched as well.
Jon Najarian of Fast Money as well as King Goldman Sachs believes that the option prices and actions are expecting one of the most volatile Januarys on record. Please be prepared in fastening your seatbelts. And that financials could be moving significantly higher (gotta hawk GS and MA).

Jon also notes that China could be primed to rally big in the next couple months. When you look at the FXI or large Chinese corporations CHL, PTR, LFC they have been consolidating for a long time (2 months)since their highs in late October as the correctly prophesized correction occurred in sync with their Chinese market seasonal trends.

A lot of value fund managers are talking about investing in the US since the correction when comparing valuations on a P/E basis with other global markets. But as always most of that money is earmarked for China. Which is fine by me because as Ken Fisher has indicated, the larger global markets always pull the smaller ones and lets face it the US market now only makes up a little over 30% of the global economy.

Another point I’d like to make is the cyclicality of wealth in America between housing and the stock market. Now that the housing market has deflated, the stock market will rise substantially comparatively. This mechanism allows for substitution of wealth creation and helps support American consumption which is the primary catalyst for our economy. The stock market WILL be the new prosperous game to be played speculatively by the same money that was chasing the housing boom. The appetite for risk must be appeased because without risk there is no gain. Cramer as I, believe that the secular bull market in Agriculture will continue as well as the solar plays.

My favorite agriculture plays are POT, MOS, AGU, MON, CF, MOO, TRA, BG, DE. The recent Energy Bill passed by the US Govt is really a Food Bill. It will put more constraints on fertilizer supplies and grain supplies as the bill calls for millions of gallons of more ethanol. Right now a Russian fertilizer company is negotiating with the Chinese for delivery of fertilizers next year and as fertilizer prices jump $50-$100 extra a ton, we could see the highest prices ever for ferts with this new Russian-Chinese deal once it is finalized. It is rumored to be completed in the next couple weeks. Now until fertilizer prices drop substantially from the highs, this bull market should continue for the foreseeable future. Analysts are going to have to play catch up with 2008-2009 estimates at this rate. They are WAY behind the curve! Ferts and Ags as the new boom craze, who ever said food was boring!!!

Solars could be part of the big solution to save our planet!!! And it is the biggest threat to the oil establishment! I remember Eric Bolling on Fast Money when he said solar was hype. Of course he said that, he and his cohorts have been helping push up oil prices for the past 3 years, if solar becomes the big thing, oil demand will drop substantially and one day oil will be used only for taking that squeak out of your kid’s bicycle chain not filling your car! (Its solar powered). Oil will never go away but it will soon be the bridesmaid instead of the only bride. My favorite solar plays are FSLR, JASO, STP, SPWR, PBW, and WFR.

I believe the market will go higher from here and we will not test November lows. The focus will be on earnings soon so writeoffs could take a back seat for the time being and remember the FED is cutting. The Fed is cutting and the markets are climbing the wall of worry. Yeah only 25 basis point cut and we growl but the fed is still in cutting mode and will cut 25 every time they meet until we are out of the woods. The market is a leading indicator and looks out 6 months ahead, we have the Bernake put and Congress put in place to provide help if the market encounters problems and as Soros believes the market not only gauges the temperature and well being of the economy but can also be the cause of illness to the economy so it is in the best interests of EVERYONE involved to make sure the market doesn’t crater. Housing has deflated consumer consumption and if the market tanks and takes everyone’s IRA, 401Ks, trading accounts and mutual funds down they will spend even less.

It is a fluid situation and news will be priced in as it comes but as more bad news comes out and we still rally, I feel good about the prospects for 2008 and it could become one of the best years for the market ever.

Happy Holidays and enjoy spending time with your cherished loved ones. We trade but that’s not who we are, we are all loving sentient beings who happen to trade for a living. We are all very important to someone. Remember what‘s important, and remember that we need to be content to feel happiness.

Besides that you better rest up for what could be the biggest ride of our lives in the markets! Stay in the Yoda state (calm, concentrated focus needed to access implicit knowledge, unemotional) and the Yoda Santa might just bring late gifts in January!

Hope you enjoy!!

Friday, December 21, 2007

RIMM


FW called the low of the day right here. Notice the middle window. There was an upside down ice cream cone preceded the low of the day. Nice call.

Thursday, December 20, 2007

DA 2RTH

1. Failure to make new highs is ALWAYS the start of wave 2.
2. Failure to make new lows in a downtrend is ALWAYS the start of wave 3.

These waves can be defined by snap back ups and/or downs.

Thursday, December 13, 2007

MARKET BUDDAH

We/I believe it is actually possible to make money trading the markets.
We/I believe it is possible for us/me to make money trading the markets.
We/I believe that we/I deserve to make money trading the markets.”
We/I are/am the Greatest traders Ever.
We always work successfully together.
We/I are/am making millions of dollars trading the markets every year.
We/I are/am happy and content, appreciative of our trading profits.
We/I are/am always calm, collected, focused.
We/I are/am always in the zone.
We/I come from positivity and abundance.
We/I cultivate and sustain a sense of ease remaining in the zone.
Have focus, patience, and pick plays with high probability of success.
Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future, concentrate the mind on the present moment-(quote from Buddha)”
I also ask myself after reading all research data from the morning “What are the possible themes today and what events are there” and think like a lion in the safari, cannot chase everything otherwise you get tired, pick a high probability target.
It is important to talk about things as present tense-Now. No “will”s but “Am”s.

So what if some are not true(can’t tell that to me now that I’ve said it about a million times), your subconscious and brain can’t tell! They believe and follow the heart. Give feeling to it while saying or thinking it. Feeling of joy/happiness.

Saturday, December 8, 2007

GRMN


The effects of news by Tom Tom really killed me. But, once again a falling knife should never be attempted to catch. Also, I got whipsawed out on the last trade. Never place any stops during the first hour of trading. 90% of all gaps get filled.

BIDU


Rule #1....never, never, never, try to catch a falling knife!!!

Friday, December 7, 2007

AAPL


This series of trades really shows my inexperience. Here is the list of lessons learned:
1. Never establish a position when stock is falling
On 11/12, notice i entered 3 times: entry...sell...entry.

2. Sell on gap ups or show of strength
On 11/15, stock gapped up...and then filled back down.

3. The trend is your friend.
I tried to play puts after seeing the gap up being filled. This play is way to complex for my level.

4. Proper entry would of been 11/28
this is the start of wave 3. i would of avoided too many entrys and exits and worrys.

I don't mind the mistakes. I'll call these lessons. Hopefully, I will always remember these lessons in future trades.