Friday, November 30, 2007

HEY COACH

The Devon Principle states that we are what we eat and that, psychologically, we are always digesting our experience. Internalizing our experience makes us who we are.

If we have negative experiences, we internalize that and develop a loss of confidence and motivation. If we have positive experiences, these become part of our outlook on ourselves and our world.

To mentor yourself, your most important step is to create positive learning experiences that will sustain your motivation, interest, and sense of efficacy.

Every trading session should involve working on a specific, doable goal and making progress toward that goal.

We can't control how markets move, so we can't control whether any single trade we make will be profitable or not. But we can control how we make trades: how we enter, how we size positions, how we exit, and how we contain losses. Having rules about all of those helps us set specific goals about the process of trading, rather than about the outcome.

The goal of your learning is to trade well, just as the goal of a pitcher is to make a good pitch. If you do that often enough, you'll win your share of outings.

But the equally important reason for setting attainable, concrete goals is that--as your own coach--you are creating the experiences that you'll be digesting. By setting yourself up for success, you build a positive identity as a trader, day by day.

Without goals, there can be no sense of attainment. Without the sense of attainment, there can't be an internalization of competence and confidence. You generate your own sense of control by--trading session by trading session--controlling your own pursuit of trading goals.

Saturday, November 24, 2007

THE MARKET


From these charts, it looks like wednesday's low needs to be retested along with long term trendlines and resistance. It looks more down is in order than up. Although we are oversold, the bounce to come would probably be limited to previous trendline and/or resistance. At that point, will come the retest.

The timing of retest will coincide with the scheduled FOMC on December 11. I expect a "sell on the news" play to unfold in the next 2 weeks. Cash is king here.

TACTICS

I see the market trending until the fed announcement on Dec 11. I'm 90% cash. GOOG and AAPL are the only positions I'm in. Here are my moves:

Entry @ 630. Stocked rallied up to resistance/support area defined by stalled rally last month at the same spot. Volume is minimal to get to here. I sold 1/2 position towards end of trading day. Bought DEC 640 puts to hedge remaining position. Place a stop @ 640 but will remove it since I bought the puts.

Entry @ 153. Sold all Dec 175 calls today and bought Dec 155 puts at end of trading. Notice how stock behaved last year at this time. It usually doesn't make its big move here. Also, it is at resistance here. It may just be stuck in a consoladation range here.

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

THANKSGIVING

GOOG, AAPL and RIMM are ready to launch despite the down-trending market. Each of them have been making higher lows while the market has been making lower lows. I've bought on any gap down...and sold on any gap up. Using 15 minute charts has been working for the past week...playing both long and short using puts and calls. The past four trading days has definitely been a roller coasting ride. Thank God Thanksgiving is here. A day of rest...family...eats...and many reasons to give thanks. Life is great!!!

Thursday, November 15, 2007

The Bears Are Here

I was able to get some Dec calls on AAPL, RIMM, MA and BIDU towards the bottom on Monday. Each gapped up big on Wednesday. That was the time I should of sold my calls and go short by buying puts. Instead I held. Thursday, the decline continued to test the lows on Monday. This was the UDU play I was talking about...but...it occuled in 3 days instead of one week. This market is very, very volatile. Going into the last day of options expiration, I just missed on buying BIDU Nov 330 calls for 5.0. Instead, I bought OEX 185 calls. My tactics are definitely on point it just needs tweaking in reacting faster than anticipated. A great week...a great month...heck...a great year!!!

Monday, November 12, 2007

Positive Trading Behaviors

Six Positive Trading Behaviors
There is much more to good trading than merely eliminating bad habits. Here are six trading behaviors I find among many of the best traders I’ve had the pleasure to work with:

1) Fresh Ideas - I’ve yet to see a very successful trader utilize the common chart patterns and indicator functions on software (oscillators, trendline tools, etc.) as primary sources for trade ideas. Rather, they look at markets in fresh ways, interpreting shifts in supply and demand from the order book or from transacted volume; finding unique relationships among sectors and markets; uncovering historical trading patterns; etc. Looking at markets in creative ways helps provide them with a competitive edge.

2) Solid Execution - If they’re buying, they’re generally waiting for a pullback and taking advantage of weakness; if they’re selling, they patiently wait for a bounce to get a good price. On average, they don’t chase markets up or down, and they pick their price levels for entries and exits. They won’t lift a market offer if they feel there’s a reasonable opportunity to get filled on a bid.

3) Thoughtful Position Sizing - The successful traders aren’t trying to hit home runs, and they don’t double up after a losing period to try to make their money back. They trade smaller when they’re not seeing things well, and they become more aggressive when they see odds in their favor. They take reasonable levels of risk in each position to guard against scenarios in which one large loss can wipe out days worth of profits.

4) Maximizing Profits - The good traders don’t just come up with promising trade ideas; they have the conviction and fortitude to stick with those ideas. Many times, it’s leaving good trades early–not accumulating bad trades–that leads to mediocre trading results. Because successful traders understand their market edge and have demonstrated it through real trading, they have the confidence to let trades ride to their objectives.

5) Controlling Risk - The really fine traders are quick to acknowledge when they’re wrong, so that they can rapidly exit marginal trades and keep their powder dry for future opportunities. They have set amounts of money that they’re willing to risk and lose per day, week, or month and they stick with those limits. This slows them down during periods of poor performance so that they don’t accumulate losses unnecessarily and have time to review markets and figure things out afresh.

6) Self-Improvement - I’m continually impressed at how good traders sustain efforts to work on themselves–even when they’re making money. They realize that they can always get better, and they readily set goals for themselves to guide their development. In a very real sense, each trading day becomes an opportunity for honing skills and developing oneself.

These six criteria, I believe, can form the basis for effective report cards. Traders can grade themselves in these six areas and, over time, establish where they’re strongest and weakest. I find such self-appraisals very helpful for coaching; ultimately they provide goals for self-development and criteria for measuring progress over time. In no small measure, good trading boils down to three factors:

1) Having a demonstrated edge;

2) Having the skills needed to exploit that edge; and

3) Having the resilience to bounce back when the edge is no longer present.

It’s the traders who have all three qualities that are most likely to make a long-term career out of the markets.

Sunday, November 11, 2007

ON WATCH: UDU

These stocks are seeking support at 50MA. Once they get to the 50MA, I expect a bounce back up to 50%Fib...then it will retrace back down to test the 50MA again...then back up with a breakout to next bull target...i.e. up/down/up (UDU) The bullish trigger are set just above the 50ma with stops just below the 50ma.
Pattern: Up...down...up (UDU)
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RIMM - Bullish trigger @ 106.50. Stop @ 103.50. Target=119.
Pattern: UDU = 39 points
ISRG - Bullish trigger @ 258.70. Stop @ 255.70. Target=283.
Pattern: UDU = 120 points
-----------------------
CME, BIDU, AAPL and FCX are all in this pattern. If this works out, what a play to end an already great year!!!

IN PLAY

GRMN - Bullish since 11/8 @ $84. Stop @ 82.50 (just over the 200ma)
Target: 50ma around $101.50
Add to position @ 92.50

AAPL - Bullish since 11/8 @ 175. Did not have a stop. A bag holder for now. I'm setting a bullish trigger @ 162. It looks like it is seeking the 50ma @ $161.40. If in, stop will be @ 160.40. Target: 175 the gap at 10/22.

BIDU - Bullish since 11/8 @ 365. Did not have a stop. A bag holder again. Setting a bullish trigger @ 307.50. It seems to be seeking the 50ma @ 306.82. If in, place stop @ 304.50. Target= 355...20ma
----------------------------------
I did not expect the huge downside move on 11/8. Instead of setting bullish traps, bearish traps were indicated. Another mistake, was not setting stops for all three. I'm holding the bag on two of the three positions. Luckily, they are Dec calls.

Problems:
**bad entry points
**buy puts instead of calls
**no stops

Solutions:
* entries will be off 50ma or 200ma (my usual bread and butter)
* set stops just over the 50/200 ma

Will concentrate on making the right moves. If the right moves are made, success will always follow.

I'm now armed and ready to trade. Happy Veterans Day. :-)

CONSISTENCY

How to Regain Your Trading Consistency

Brett N. Steenbarger, Ph.D.

www.brettsteenbarger.com


A reader recently wrote to me the following:

I was a successful consistent trader who always hit singles and doubles ($1000-$3000 a day) for 48 months in a row without having a losing month (1999-2003).Then one day I struck out. I lost $38,000 in one stock and had my first losing month as a trader ever. Since then I have not had two consecutive winning months and in fact have only had a handful of profitable months since then. I am still looking for the road back to consistency. No matter how close I get I always find a way to screw it up even if it is on the last day of the month. Or I give back the month with just some silly unimportant trade that turns into a disaster. It is like I subconsciously look for these situations just so I can mess up.

This is not such an unusual scenario. One large loss can trigger a cascade of attempts to make back the money, further mistakes, and expanding losses. The key is breaking this cycle of losing money, attempting to make the money back with aggressive trades, and continuing to lose.

The first thing I'd have our trader look at is where he is placing stops and targets for his trades. Note that his successful period was 1999-2003. That was a period of much higher price volatility than we've seen since then. What constitutes "singles and doubles" in a high volatility environment is a home run trade in a slow, low-volatility market. It is entirely conceivable that our trader is placing targets too far from his entries, allowing small gains to reverse on him. Similarly, he may be letting trades get too far away from him simply because he is calibrated to a higher level of volatility.

A good way to test these hypotheses would be to study trades over the last several months. If losing trades are larger than winners on average, and if many losers start out as winners, that would suggest that our trader needs to adjust to the post 2003 environment.

To break the cycle mentioned above, the first step is to drastically reduce trading size. I would cut size to 1/4 the average at the most. The goal is to keep a little skin in the game, but take P/L (and the push to make back money) off the table temporarily. The initial objective is not to make money, but to regain a trading rhythm by getting back to singles and doubles.

The next step is to identify those singles and doubles. That means deconstructing the account statement and identifying which trades are making money and which aren't. I would break the data down into time of day, stock/index being traded, long/short, and size. I would also look to see if there are large outlier trades to the downside that are pulling down P/L, and if there are some trades that are making money consistently.

Once our trader has identified what's working, the idea is to keep position size fixed and *only* trade those setups that have been working. This is the foundation to build upon. These setups can be written down and mentally rehearsed ahead of the trading day to build consistency. The idea is to not increase size *and* not trade other patterns until consistency is achieved with smaller size and the most successful setups.

There is only one cure for trauma, and that is repeated experiences of control and safety. We want trading to be routine, not highly emotionally charged.

Finally, I would encourage our trader to take a look at how he is viewing his situation. Note above that he talks of the $38,000 loss and the silly trade that "turns into a disaster" as if these are things happening to him, not things that he is actively doing. A simple strategy would be to have the trader write down the four things he is responsible for prior to each trade:

* The Entry
* The Target(s)
* The Stop
* The Position Size

We can't control whether any individual trade will be a winner, but we can control how much we are willing to bet on each trade. Outsized losses don't happen to a trader; they are actively caused. It is harder to allow those things to occur if you're talking aloud those four trade parameters and have them written in front of you.

So there it is in a nutshell. My advice is to get small, get selective, and take responsibility for what can be controlled.

Friday, November 9, 2007

WORDS FOR TRADERS

So what's an investor to do?

The first thing to do is an attitude check from the neck up.

One of the most important tools you posses as a trader is your mind. Attitude can either make or break you as a trader.

To become a successful trader it begins with believing in yourself and having a winning attitude.

Everyone wants to be a winner; at least, they think so. Unfortunately, most are not willing to perform the tasks necessary to become a consistent winner.

Winners generally achieve success by being focused on a goal. Being focused allows winners to remain committed to the tasks at hand. Most winners perform a lot of hard work; including a willingness to deal with sometimes mundane duties. Most of all, winners perform with an "I am responsible for both my failures and successes" attitude.

So, where does the would-be trader start to become a success? By focusing on the tasks at hand. Most of all, treat trading as a business. And, as in any business, money management is critical.

Money management, next to trend, is probably the aspect of trading most overlooked by smaller investors. Man, by nature, is an optimistic creature and the amateur trader often acts instinctively. Unfortunately, this instinct or optimism is often the undoing of the smaller trader.

When a person enters a trade, he does so with the hope it will be a winner. When the position goes against him, he keeps thinking (or hoping) "it will come back." He knows he should have a stop in place, but hope keeps telling him to stay just a little longer since everybody knows "you always get stopped out the day the market turns." Eventually, hope turns into frustration, desperation and, finally, panic, prompting the trader to issue a GMO (get me out) order.

If the trader hasn't learned his lesson by this point, he develops the "I have to get it back" syndrome. He generally rushes into another poorly planned trade, throwing good money after bad.

Winners show several different characteristics. They enter the market knowing they can be wrong and, in fact, are wrong as often as they are right. They have learned markets don't run on hope. They understand markets tell them when they are right or wrong. When a trade is losing money and getting worse, the market is telling them to get out.

Bad Trades

A bad trade is like a dead fish: The longer you keep it, the worse it smells.

Good Trades

When a trade is making money, the market is telling them they are right and to let the position ride.

Don't ever do this …

Winners don't add to, or "average", losing positions. They dump the trade and go looking for a new opportunity. Successful investors may add to the winning trades. When ahead, they press their advantage while remembering that at any time the market can turn on them and prove them wrong.

It trading keep your mind clear and do not get emotional about a trade. Remember you are not married to a stock rather you are in the dating game.

Next week… it's a surprise.

Have a great weekend and a super trading week.

Thursday, November 8, 2007

SETTING TRAPS

Since I don't really feel comfortable playing the "DON'T PASS" line, I will set some traps if the following positions get pushed down to fill some gaps.

MA If price goes down to $174.50, the buy 10 contracts of MALLT Dec 200.
GRMN If price goes down to $84, buy 10 contracts of GQRLA Dec 90
AAPL If price goes down to $176, buy 10 contracts of APVLQ Dec 185

Wednesday, November 7, 2007

GRMN

I played this to bounce off support. It made a 5 point move. Now, news of Tom Tom's higher bid has the sent the stock tumbling. I'll take my loss. Realize can't win the all. Still have lots of ammo to play with.

Friday, November 2, 2007

The Passline



Ever play craps at a casino? Players have two choices to place their bets. They can play with the shooter by putting their chips on the "passline". or...they can bet against the shooter...and in most cases, bet against the majority of players at the table...which ain't cool. Needless to say, those who play "don't pass" are subconciously hated by the majority who are with the shooter. This craps mentality can be seen in the market ala longs vs shorts. With that said, I felt the market would take a dive on a sell on the news Fed rate cut. I wanted to place bearish positions...but...for some reason, I didn't. I guess I'm a natural "passline" player. I got out of BIDU way too early...but...still had a significant profit. Instead of buying puts, I'm holding 2 small call positions: MA and GRMN. My GRMN position is taking a huge hit...however, I'm holding because there is evidence of this stock being manipulated. The evidence is...the low of the week came today at $97.14. When checking out this weekly graph, guess what the 20MA...the spot to the penny where GRMN stopped this decline. You got it...$97.14.