Friday, November 2, 2007

The Passline



Ever play craps at a casino? Players have two choices to place their bets. They can play with the shooter by putting their chips on the "passline". or...they can bet against the shooter...and in most cases, bet against the majority of players at the table...which ain't cool. Needless to say, those who play "don't pass" are subconciously hated by the majority who are with the shooter. This craps mentality can be seen in the market ala longs vs shorts. With that said, I felt the market would take a dive on a sell on the news Fed rate cut. I wanted to place bearish positions...but...for some reason, I didn't. I guess I'm a natural "passline" player. I got out of BIDU way too early...but...still had a significant profit. Instead of buying puts, I'm holding 2 small call positions: MA and GRMN. My GRMN position is taking a huge hit...however, I'm holding because there is evidence of this stock being manipulated. The evidence is...the low of the week came today at $97.14. When checking out this weekly graph, guess what the 20MA...the spot to the penny where GRMN stopped this decline. You got it...$97.14.

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