Friday, April 16, 2010

MARKET NEVER GOING DOWN

The conditions for Correction are in place. Low Put/Call ratios - Lowest Ever
Now - need a trigger - to break the fever. Either - Gap up and Reverse Down -- or something to allow falling thru Uptrendlines. Bad news -- or Lack of Buyers. That piddling little Initial Claims this morning - did not impress the markets. AT the bottom line - markets Love Unemployment. Even the miss on Industrial Production did not impress anybody. Underutilized capacity - means Low Inflation. The Asian workers will do the work - and our 85-90% employed will buy stuff -- assisted by he huge China middle class. So - what can turn it down ? aside from a big surge and Neg Reversal ? Good Question. Pisani now yaps about a "wall of Money" flowing into stocks -- on any dip. That fits in the idea of Short-covering low volume move -- to 2012-13. But -- usually - when there is a major Shift in thinking -- it takes a Correction - to get rid of the Old ideas. I'm willing to learn new tricks. The last two years have shown me some. Keep in mind - stocks looked kinda tired - until INTC charged em up again. There are a few hundred more big companies to report the next two weeks. I talked about 2004 pattern - with a peak in early April - then PB -but mostly flat til end of April -- then Down in May. The Big difference between 2004 and 2009 showed up early. In 2004 - Jan -- there was only a tiny dip -- before sideways - up into March. In 2009 - Jan -Feb -- we had a 10% Correction in 18 days - 12% in NYSE Index. That was as much as the whole 8 month correction of 2004 - into Oct. The Numbers got very Negative "Extreme" at the 2/5 Low. The sense of panic was there again. In 2004 -- Kudlow and Cramer - talked in March / April -- of New highs immediately - No lower lows. That was the mood back then. It took 3 or 4 nasty dips -to wash out the Bullishness - by Aug - Sept – Oct. Now - in 2009 - the Bullishness is growing in April. Some measures are off the charts. But - others are still moderate. It's a tricky "new day". I wasn't there - in 1932 - 1937 -- and things were Much different then. So - we use All our tools - to keep afloat - and Sane.