Tuesday, March 8, 2011

projections

Question: Sir Hotto any ideas on an int correction beginning now or soon
Hotto: - same old story -- Need to Break the last SL - with conviction. :) Else - keep Trading at the Bumpers :) Stock Mkt Bumper Pool : ) One school of thought now -- is Ben and his helpers -- are using their "good hands" to keep stocks working higher. Or it's just the huge pool of Money out there. When QE2 ends in June - there will be a lessening of the "good hands" effect. And Traders will likely also flip over. I've thought the Traders may Anticipate by a month or so. That would be in early May -- just after the Q1 Earnings Season.
Comment: sell in may and walk away that works
Hotto: And - just After the Tax day 4/15 -- and end of month.
-----------------------------12013 is LBB-- that's below 3/2 SL
*12019
So – the LBB is almost exactly at 3/2 SL.
on DJIA - this is developing into a scary pattern -- over last 2 weeks.
"possibly develop into a crash" -- could be "flash crash" -- or maybe Prechter's dream :)
I saw that Prechter changed his Downside target-- from "below 1,000" to 6,000. That would be better - for some peeps : ) Say "whew!" I was really Worried about 1,000. But 6,000 is ok :) At 1,000 -- it's "pass the ammo please". At 6,000 -- it's Get me some New representatives :)
Comment: and you get immediately tossed off the train by being shot, no?
Hotto: It's a new world -- gonna be lots of peeps thrown off the train. Sorry. We fell to 6K -- with Ben ready to jump into the phone booth. Next time - not so much. Hopefully, we get a Correction. Then "self-sustaining" expansion. There's lots of Money out there -- hopefully will come in - and boost the Economy. First chance - I think - is in May/June -- for big drop. Hopefully not until late 2012 or 2013. I discussed that in lots of words a couple weeks ago. I have some nuances - but alas - Moderated is broken.
-----------------i
if this Bear flag formation plays out -- it suggests about 500 - 600 points more down - below the 3/2 SL. That would be about 11500 or lower.
11650 is approximately sma90
11574 is the 1/10 SL - approximately where the flat of late December.
10984 is sma200 -- DJIA has not been down for a visit since September, 2010.
Ok - but – the DJIA is still Above the LBB -- and above 3/2 SL -- and 2/24 SL - and Over sma50. Lots of "obstacles in the way". I won't break out in song : ) But "I can see clearly now" :)